A Shifting Map: Why Democrats May Struggle Beyond 2030
For decades, Democrats leaned on a reliable formula to win the White House: dominate in California, New York, and Illinois, then add Midwest battlegrounds to cross 270 electoral votes. That path, however, may not hold beyond 2030.
Analysts warn that after the 2030 Census, migration and redistricting could reshape the map. Republicans may gain ground as Americans move from high-tax states into faster-growing, GOP-leaning regions.
Large numbers are leaving California, New York, and Illinois for Texas, Florida, Arizona, and the Carolinas. These states either lean Republican or have legislatures firmly under GOP control, ensuring that population shifts benefit the right more than the left.